Israel, Jerusalem, 30 May / Trend corr R. Abdullayev/ Many observers foretell that given the current situation in Israel, Ehud Olmert's administration will not stay until the end of the office term. "Sad tendency of early collapse of governmental coalitions has become a tradition and the current Government is unlikely to be an exception," Israeli expert Mordekhay Kedar said.
Israel's Defence Minister Ehud Barak issued an ultimatum to the Prime Minister's party: either Olmert who is suspected of bribe-taking resigns or early elections. "The Prime Minister cannot simultaneously govern the country and cope with police investigation," Ehud Barak, leader of the Labour Party which is included into the governing coalition, said. According to him, the situations especially threats from Hezbollah and HAMAS require Olmert's resignation.
"The most difficult tasks, which the country is facing in the political, economic and defence fields, have not only provoked a crisis inside the Israeli society but also revealed harsh differences in the country's political establishment including the very governing party. The key agenda of today is not whether the early elections will take place or not, but when will they take place," Kedar, a political scientist in the Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies at the Israeli Bar-Ilan University, said to Trend on 30 May.
According to Kedar, as a result of Olmert's illegitimacy, the US Secretary of State has refused to pay her next 'shuttle' visit to Israel. On the other hand, Olmert leaves for the USA, in spite of the expected coalition collapse, when many Knesset members including two representatives of his party Kadima call on his resignation. "The head of the government is trying his best to divert the attention of people from investigations on his too popular corruption scandals," Kedar said.
The foreign minister of Israel, who remained silent up till now, said on 29 May that Kadima is at the crossroads: the party should immediately adopt a decision and it should be ready for any scenario of development of the events, including early parliament elections. According to the Israeli expert, thus, Tsipi Livni gave a go-ahead to the inner-party election campaign, the winner of which will take the post of chairman of Kadima.
According to the opinion poll, Livni is the favourite of the campaign. However, all Israeli newspapers report that the Premier Ehud Olmert will do his best not to let him take his position. "Olmert has his own candidate - the minister of transport Shaul Mofaz. Ehud Olmert will probably stake on Mofaz in order to stop the foreign minister," Kedar said.
On his part, the former head of the Joint Staff and minister of defence, the current minister of transport Shaul Mofaz believes that Livni, by taking advantage of the difficult situation caused by the corruption scandal of Olmert, aspires to the position of the head of government. Mofaz supports Olmert as he understands that Olmert's term of office is terminating and he wants to delay inner-party elections until September. Mofaz hopes to win elections and thus to move towards his target - the post of the premier.
Olmert is leaving the country in spite of the upcoming split of the coalition, and amid the situation when some members of Knesset and two representatives of his Kadima party call for resignation of Premier.
"His management is splitting. He uses the time granted on credit," said Efraim Inbar from the Strategic Studies Center named after Begin Sadat. The words of Inbar were quoted by the New-York-based Jewish Week.
The professor Tafi from the European University is of the same opinion. "The Premier flies to Washington in spite of the political crisis, because he is ready to do his best to distract the attention of the public from the investigation (corruption case)," he said in his interview with Maariv newspaper.