DUSHANBE, Tajikistan, December 6. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has projected that inflation in Tajikistan will reach 3.9 percent in 2024, Trend reports.
According to the bank, inflation in the country has been gradually decreasing since February 2024, following a 3.8 percent year-on-year increase in December 2023. In October, inflation stood at 3.6 percent year-on-year. The EDB attributes the low inflation rate to the strengthening of the national currency and the decline in international prices for imported food and energy products.
"Given the low monthly inflation in November last year, when prices decreased by 0.2 percent month-on-month, compared to an average increase of 0.9 percent month-on-month from 2018 through 2022, we expect to see a pick-up in price dynamics by the end of 2024. We forecast that inflation will reach 3.9 percent year-on-year by December 2024, which is close to the lower bound of the National Bank's target range (6±2 percent)," the bank noted.
Looking ahead, the EDB expects inflation to return to the National Bank of Tajikistan's target range of 6±2 percent in 2025, with an annual rate of 5.9 percent. Strong consumer demand, supported by rising wages, is expected to drive price increases towards target levels.
However, inflationary pressures will be partially offset by the dynamics of energy prices. The bank predicts that global oil prices will decline by 7.4 percent in 2025 compared to 2024. In the longer term, inflation is expected to stabilize near the midpoint of the target range in 2026–2027, with annual consumer price growth expected to be in the 6–7 percent range, driven by domestic demand and gradual depreciation of the somoni.
Additionally, global food price increases are expected to exert upward pressure on inflation in 2026–2027.