TASHKENT, Uzbekistan, July 11. The Netherlands-based ING company suggests that for every $1/oz bump in gold prices, Uzbekistan could be raking in an extra $3.6 million in export proceeds annually, Trend reports.
The rally in gold prices has further bolstered the country’s trade and current account balances, reversing the Uzbek soum’s multi-quarter depreciation trend. These gains build on already encouraging signs from the first quarter, when the trailing four-quarter current account deficit narrowed to $3.8 billion from $5.7 billion in 2024.
On the fiscal front, budget performance has also improved, supported by tighter cost controls and stronger revenue collection. As of the first quarter of 2025, the 12-month rolling consolidated deficit narrowed to 2.8 percent of GDP, down from 3.3 percent in 2024 and 4.9 percent in 2023. These positive developments contributed to Fitch’s recent upgrade of the sovereign rating to BB, with a stable outlook, citing accelerated reform progress and favorable medium-term growth prospects.
Looking ahead, the near-term performance of the UZS aligns with our constructive outlook. However, the longer-term trajectory of the soum will depend on the stability of private capital flows. Balance of Payments (BoP) data indicate that the local FX market has recently benefited from robust private capital inflows, with net portfolio inflows reaching $5.1 billion over the four quarters ending in the first quarter of this year. This marks a significant improvement compared to $3.1 billion in 2024 and the $1–2 billion per annum seen over the previous five years. Nonetheless, the durability of these inflows remains uncertain.
In summation, although Uzbekistan's recent economic trajectory exhibits notable dynamism, sustaining this momentum necessitates ongoing structural reforms and meticulous oversight of external capital inflows.
