BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 17. The Caucasus and Central Asia growth forecast is revised up to 4.5 percent from 4.3 percent in 2024 and 5.1 percent from 5.0 percent in 2025, driven by stronger-than-expected growth in Azerbaijan and the Kyrgyz Republic, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says, Trend reports.
Azerbaijan’s economy expanded by 4.3 percent in January to April 2024, driven by transport and construction aided by public spending. The Kyrgyz Republic’s growth rate is estimated to have been 8.8 percent in Q1 2024 due to strong output in services and construction funded by domestic and foreign investment. Economic activity in other subregional economies has been similarly robust. Georgia’s economy expanded by 9.0 percent in the first 4 months of 2024, as strong credit supported both domestic consumption and investment. Partly due to a sharp rise in exports, including gold sales, Tajikistan continued its strong growth, at the rate of 8.2 percent in Q1 2024. Growth in Turkmenistan is driven by public investment and net gas exports. A surge in fixed capital investment in Uzbekistan led to 6.2 percent growth in Q1 2024.
Inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 in the Caucasus and Central Asia are revised down. The revised forecast mostly reflects lower-than-expected price levels observed in Georgia and the Kyrgyz Republic. Amid currency appreciation, Georgia’s inflation for the first 5 months of 2024 was also limited to 0.9 percent. In the Kyrgyz Republic, inflation dropped to 4.6 percent in May 2024, primarily reflecting price movements of major commodities, from 11.3 percent a year ago. Inflationary pressures are also subsiding in other economies of the subregion. In January to May 2024, Kazakhstan’s inflation rate slowed to 9.0 percent, down from 18.5 percent in the same period in 2023, due to a stable exchange rate and relatively tight monetary policy. Tajikistan’s inflation was 3.8 percent in the first 4 months of 2024. In Uzbekistan, inflation decelerated to 9.2 percent in the first 5 months of 2024 from 11.4 percent a year earlier.
