Baku, Azerbaijan, Sept. 30
By Umid Niayesh - Trend:
Russia has put itself on the slippery slope towards much greater involvement in the Syrian war, with significant casualties likely, Daniel Serwer, a US former diplomat told Trend Sept. 30.
In recent weeks, Russia has moved aircraft, tanks, artillery and armored vehicles into Syria, though its objective in the region remains murky.
It is intended to shore up the Syrian president, Bashar al Assad, whose forces have been weakening and appear to be unable to stem the advance of insurgents southwest from Idlib towards Latakia and Tartous, where Russia maintains port facilities, Serwer said.
"I note the contrast between President Vladimir Putin's claim in an interview in the US last weekend that Russia will not conduct military operations in Syria but only support the Syrian government and the widely reported strikes by Russian warplanes against Islamic State (IS, also known as ISIS, ISIL) group targets, which are inconsistent with his statement," he added.
While responding a question about possible effects of the Russia's move in changing the balance of power in the Middle East, Serwer said that Russian deployment of a couple of thousand troops and a couple of dozen warplanes would not affect the balance of power in the Middle East in any significant way.
Iran and Russia have been together in supporting Assad government for the past four and a half years, however their effort to help him suppress the insurgency has so far failed, he said.
Many in the West see the Russian move as competitive with Iran, to beef up Moscow 's influence in Damascus, Serwer, who is an expert on conflict management said while responding to a question about possibility of formation of an Iran-Russia coalition in Syria.
The former vice president for centers of peace building innovation at the US Institute of Peace also believes that Russian deployment in Syria will not significantly affect the regional countries playing role in Syria.
For instance, Turkey is mainly concerned with the Kurdish forces on its border and wants to create a protected area in northern Syria, one not controlled by Kurds, to which it can repatriate some refugees. Neither of those concerns is much affected by the Russian deployment, Serwer said.
"The other key role-playing country is Saudi Arabia which has supported the insurgency against Assad and the Western anti-ISIS Coalition and I expect it to keep on doing those things," he noted.
According to the expert the US policy also will not witness clear change regarding Syria. "I didn't hear anything in President Barack Obama's speech in UN General Assembly Sept. 28 to suggest that. He is clearly willing to talk with Iran and Russia about Syria but we are still a long way from agreement on what to do."
He further touched upon the issue of possible Tehran-Washington cooperation in fighting terrorism, saying Iran and the US may cooperate on regional issues, as they have in the past on Afghanistan. But regarding Syria it is unlikely because their understanding of Bashar al Assad's role there is dramatically different, he underlined.
" Tehran and Moscow see al Assad as essential to fighting ISIS. Washington thinks there will be no end to the insurgency and ISIS so long as he remains in power."
It should be noted that Mohammad Nahavandian, chief of staff of Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said earlier that cooperation between the US and Iran on fighting terrorism in the region could be possible if the United States fulfills its commitments in the Iran nuclear deal to lift sanctions.
However the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has emphasized that the two parties' co-op will never go beyond nuclear issue.
After several months of talks, on July 14, Iran and the P5+1 (US, Russia, China, France, UK, and Germany) announced a final accord, curbing Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of most international sanctions.
Edited by CN
Umid Niayesh is Trend Agency's staff journalist, follow him on Twitter: @UmidNiayesh