Elmira Tariverdiyeva, commentator of the European desk of Trend
South Caucasus republics have faced the current political spring with the intensity of the opposition parties.
However, the reasons, goals and consequences of actions in the region are fundamentally different from each other in accordance with the policies pursued by the authorities and the social situation of the peoples of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia.
Nothing new is happening in Georgia now and certainly nothing could lead to serious political consequences. On Monday in Tbilisi, the next opposition rally ended with little hassle with the police.
Opposition, as usual, promises to continue large-scale protests after the Easter holidays and threatens to overthrow the government. However, the experience of recent years has shown: Georgian opposition is too weak and separate in order to achieve at least minimal changes in the current policy of the authorities.
Georgian opposition leaders are more busy with squabbling and infighting within their own movements rather than the development of a real platform that would interest people.
After the clashes and confusion in the ranks of the opposition leaders, opposition parties went in their separate ways after ceasing to bet on the merger. This is understandable - opposition has no coordinated approach to combating the authorities.
And it is unlikely in the near future the situation will change. Given this, the opposition rallies Georgia will certainly continue, but all with less success and with little popular support.
And it is unlikely that the situation will change in the near future. Given this, the opposition rallies in Georgia will certainly continue, but all with less success and with little popular support.
Still less threat is imposed to the current government by the caricature opposition in Azerbaijan, which made attempts to hold rallies in Baku. Two weak attempts of Azerbaijani opposition to hold unauthorized actions failed. Several opposition members taking to streets of Baku failed to create a sense of dissatisfaction with government, which supposedly exists among the people.
Just against, these attempts are talking about one thing: the opposition in Azerbaijan is not able to compile a real competitor to the ruling elite. Primarily because there is no social ground for the successful activities of the opposition in Azerbaijan - a country with a stable growing economy. A good indicator of socio-economic condition became the country's successful withdrawal from the global economic crisis. On this backdrop, obviously, opposition are unlikely to succeed in attracting people of Azerbaijan in rallies.
The most difficult situation in the region has been created by the Armenian authorities. The mass actions have regularly been conducted in the country over last two months, which according to various sources, involve from 50 to 70,000 people. The next action will be conducted on April 8.
This meeting of the Armenian opposition will be numerous and very important, the representative of the Armenian national congress David Shahnazaryan told reporters, Novosti Armenia reported. "For their numerical strength, the rallies will not lag behind the previous actions, especially since it has already crossed the border after which the rallies will degenerate into large mass actions," said Shahnazaryan.
The rallies in Armenia have a serious social background, as the living condition of the people in the country is approaching a critical level. Armenia, more than any other country in the region, has all preconditions to pick up the revolutionary fever of the Middle East and North Africa. The actions initiated by the opposition express social protest like the protests of the Egyptian, Tunisian and other Middle Eastern nations.
Living conditions in Armenia, a country with the most fragile economy in the region, is so grim that the country's government is unlikely to withdraw from the situation without loss.
According to the National Statistics Service of Armenia, consumer prices in Armenia during 2010 increased by 10.6 percent.
The largest price increase - 13.1 percent - was recorded in food, that is the sector of social security, without which it is impossible to do. Prices for industrial goods rose 5.6 percent, the tariffs for services by 4.2 percent.
The poverty rate has already reached 35 percent, forcing 60,000 people to leave Armenia last year. The decline in living standards continues and threatens to turn into a revolution to overthrow the government. Especially because the current government in Armenia is not doing anything to help people. Because of government policies and lack of real market competition, small and medium businesses are closed, which hurts the people because of rising in prices and the monopolization of the economy.
On this backdrop, exactly Armenia will apparently face the worst social unrest in the season of 2011, a result of which could be overthrowing the government and the coming to power of one of the opposition bloc.