BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 16. Global investment in oil and gas has averaged around $550 billion annually since 2019, but nearly 90% of that spending is directed at replacing output lost from declining fields rather than boosting supply, says the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
Decline rates in production have steepened compared to earlier decades, requiring higher levels of capital just to maintain output. The IEA notes that if decline rates had remained at 1980s levels, annual investment needs would be about $360 billion instead of the current $500 billion.
Looking ahead, the agency estimates upstream investment in 2025 will total around $570 billion, which could support a modest increase in production if sustained. At this level - roughly $540 billion on average through 2050 - global oil and gas supply would remain close to today’s levels.
The outlook highlights how investment levels and oil prices shape the industry’s future: lower prices would push companies to focus on extending the life of existing assets, while higher prices would encourage costlier development of new fields in frontier regions.
The IEA underlines that even small shifts in upstream investment can determine whether global supply grows, stays flat, or declines.
