Uzbekistan, Tashkent, May 31 / Trend D. Azizov /
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended that the Uzbek official bodies focus on measures to reduce inflation, intensify the implementation of the previously announced comprehensive reform programme, as well as to take measures to improve the quality of statistical data and their dissemination, the IMF mission said today.
The statement summarises the IMF mission's conclusions. The mission visited Tashkent on May 21 - 25 to review the current economic situation, renew the macroeconomic forecast for the short term prospect and to discuss the plans of official bodies towards the economic policy.
According to the IMF experts, a steady drop in inflation to a single digit level by late 2013 remains the main task in a complex of measures of the macroeconomic policy.
In this regard, the Fund recommends avoiding the easing of the tax-budget policy, whilst continuing to save all revenues received in excess of the budgeted level and to reduce non-priority spending on goods and services by protecting the expenditure on social protection.
The budget for 2012 (adjusted for the phase of the economic cycle and commodity prices) envisages expanding the structural balance of public finances by two per cent of GDP.
Moreover, it is necessary to hold a calibration of the monetary policy by reducing the accumulation of reserves, increasing the volume of sterilisation and to ensure a positive level of interest rates in real terms to improve managing the pressure from the demand resulting from state expenditure.
The priority areas in the area of the comprehensive reform programme are the intensification of financial intermediation and trade facilitation. The official bodies are recommended to remove imbalances in the foreign exchange market and to further strengthen confidence in the banks by improving banking supervision and control of cash, as well as to release the banks from the functions of tax administration.
The mission recommends the authorities take steps to improve the quality of statistical data and proceed to their distribution. In the opinion of the Fund the first steps in this direction should be the reporting on the operations budget based on GFSM 2001 standard tables which corresponds to the standards of the International Financial Statistics (IFS), and continued work on improving the quality of statistical data on national accounts and price statistics.
In addition, Uzbekistan should join the General Data Dissemination System of the IMF and to provide reports on the country.
According to the Fund, inflation in Uzbekistan stayed at 13.3 per cent at an annual rate, in accordance with an alternative methodology (7.6 per cent - according to official statistics of Uzbekistan).
Nominal GDP, calculated in national currency - soum, increased by 8.3 per cent to 77.751 trillion soum ($45.353 billion).
Broad money grew by 32.3 per cent compared to 2010, net foreign assets - by 35.2 per cent, net domestic assets declined by 38.5 per cent.
The current account amounted to 5.8 per cent of GDP compared to 6.2 per cent in 2010, outstanding external debt - 13.3 per cent of GDP compared to 14.8 per cent a year earlier.
The real effective exchange rate decreased by 3.8 per cent
External debt service ratio (percentage of exports of goods and services) amounted to 3.9 per cent compared to 4.1 per cent.
The expanded rate of state finances amounted to nine per cent of GDP last year compared to 4.9 per cent in 2010, the national debt - 9.1 per cent compared to 10 per cent, including foreign debt - 8.5 per cent compared to 9.4 per cent of GDP in 2010.
As previously reported, Uzbekistan's GDP in 2011 increased by 8.3 per cent compared to 2010 up to 77 trillion 750.6 soum.
Inflation was 7.6 per cent compared to 7.3 per cent in 2010.
Industrial production increased last year by 6.3 per cent, agricultural production by 6.6 per cent. The volume of construction works increased by 8.5 per cent, consumer goods production by 11 per cent, paid services by 16.1 per cent.
The foreign trade turnover increased by 15 per cent up to $25.537 billion, including exports by 15.4 per cent to $15.027 billion, imports by 14.5 per cent to $10.51 billion trade surplus amounted to $4.517 billion (an increase by six per cent).
Uzbekistan joined the IMF in 1992 and its office has been operating in the country since 1993.