Azerbaijan, Baku, Apr. 15 / Trend V.Zhavoronkova /
Experts believe the probability of a civil war in Kyrgyzstan is small.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Kyrgyzstan is on the brink of a civil war April 14.
"If a civil war starts, then terrorists and extremists of all stripes will rush into the country, and it will become a second Afghanistan," Medvedev said at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
Last week, the government was dismissed after mass protests, and the opposition seized power. This is the second overthrow of a government in the country after gaining independence. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev came to power after the revolution five years ago.
Bakiyev has been in hiding in his southern stronghold since the violent clashes last week. He refuses to surrender his authority, but society, but the opposition has stated that a new president will be elected within six months.
According to experts, the probability of civil war is small.
"Although Bakiyev uses the argument of beginning a civil war, it is unlikely to happen," Russian expert on the CIS, Moscow State University Research Fellow Stanislav Pritchin told Trend over the phone from Moscow.
Potentially, such a possibility does exist. Another matter is that it is difficult to evaluate Bakiyev's real impact and his abilities in the south of the country, Institute of the CIS Deputy Director Vladimir Zharikhin was quoted as saying by RIA Novosti.
Apparently, discontent in the south is also high. Although Bakiyev does have some support in the country's southern regions, it is not enough, U.S. expert on Central Asia Bruce Pannier said.
"He held a rally Tuesday in Jalal-Abat and only 1,500 people really seemed to support him," Pannier wrote Trend in an e-mail from Kazakhstan.
Bakiyev called people from all the cities and towns in the southern regions to come to the rally yesterday, but few people came, he said.
Bakiyev is unlikely to play the geographic card, namely calling for a confrontation between the north and south, Pritchin said.
Bakiyev's initial plans and were intended to bargain for some guarantee of his own security, as he formally remains the legitimate president, and nobody has removed his authority, he said.
However, Bakiyev understands that he has no chances of returning to Bishkek, Pritchin said.
"He has no people's support because too many people died, too many people were offended in business and politics. So, Bakiyev simply needs assurances of his own security," the expert said.
After the opposition announced its decision to arrest Bakiyev, he will do everything he can to avoid spending the rest of his life in prison. It is obvious that he is looking for an opportunity to leave his post, he said.
However, the interim government is not working smoothly, Pritchin said.
Their main problem is that they have appointed themselves to these positions, the expert said.
"They call themselves the government of the national trust whereas in fact the people did not elect them. There was no voting. Voting will not be held in the nearest future," Pritchin said.
Thus, the interim government is also interested in the only legitimate president resigning from his post. The question is how they make such an arrangement, the expert said.
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