BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 23. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised Kazakhstan’s GDP growth forecast upward to 5.1% for 2025 and 4.3% for 2026, reflecting a stronger-than-expected first quarter performance and favorable external conditions, Trend reports.
The previous April projections stood at 4.9% for 2025 and 4.1% for 2026.
According to the ADB’s latest outlook, Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 5.6% in the first quarter of 2025, a significant acceleration from 3.8% in the same period last year. The growth was fueled by robust gains in key sectors, including transport (up 21.0%), construction (16.9%), manufacturing (8.7%), and mining (6.1%).
Government spending has also played a central role. “Higher-than-expected tax revenues have allowed Kazakhstan to increase capital investments and social service expenditures, reinforcing the momentum in economic activity,” the report noted.
Further bolstering the outlook is the earlier-than-planned launch of the Tengiz oil field expansion project, which is expected to sustain growth in the mining sector through the year.
Kazakhstan is also benefiting from favorable global energy dynamics. On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to raise oil production for the third month in a row. With Kazakhstan operating at maximum production capacity, this development is expected to further support economic expansion.
The country’s consolidated business activity index in May 2025 indicated a continuing rise in private sector activity, signaling broader confidence in the economic outlook.
As the largest economy in Central Asia, Kazakhstan’s performance has had a significant impact on the ADB’s upgraded regional growth forecast for the Caucasus and Central Asia, now set at 5.5% for 2025.
