BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 23. U.S. dry natural gas production grew by 2.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, marking a clear recovery from the sluggish output of 2024, according to the latest market outlook by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
The rebound was fueled by a strong second-quarter performance and rising domestic and export demand, setting the stage for a return to sustained growth.
The Henry Hub benchmark price averaged $3.67 per million British thermal units (MBtu) during the first six months of 2025 - a 74% jump from the same period in 2024 - supporting increased upstream investment across key basins.
Production in the Appalachian Basin returned to year-on-year growth in March, bolstered by stronger prices and a gradual increase in drilling activity. Capital spending stabilized in early 2025 after sharp cutbacks the year before, although concerns over pipeline takeaway capacity remain, with volumes approaching previous peaks from late 2023.
In the Permian Basin, associated gas output continued to rise steadily, thanks to resilient oil production and growing gas-to-oil ratios - a trend expected to persist through the forecast period. Meanwhile, Haynesville Shale production posted modest gains, recording year-on-year growth in April for the first time in 18 months, despite its relatively higher production costs.
These regional gains more than offset declines in other areas and signaled a shift toward renewed national growth, the IEA noted.
Looking ahead, gas demand from new LNG export facilities is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, driven by the ramp-up of terminals such as Plaquemines LNG and the Corpus Christi expansion. Combined with healthy industrial and power sector demand, this is likely to put continued upward pressure on production.
While gas storage levels had returned to their five-year average by June, following a sizable winter drawdown, the IEA sees limited additional market impact from storage in the remainder of the year.
For the full year, U.S. natural gas output is forecast to rise by an average of 2.5%, with record-high production levels expected in both 2025 and 2026. LNG exports are projected to jump 13% (18 bcm) next year, reinforcing the United States’ position as the world’s leading LNG exporter. Piped gas exports to Mexico are also set to grow, supported by rising demand and new LNG developments south of the border.
The IEA’s outlook suggests that robust pricing, expanding infrastructure, and strong export momentum will continue to drive U.S. gas growth in the near term.
