BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 23. Global natural gas demand is expected to grow by approximately 1.3% in 2025, according to the latest short-term outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
However, tighter market conditions and geopolitical uncertainty are likely to weigh on consumption, particularly in price-sensitive import markets.
While liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is forecast to expand by 5.5% - equivalent to 30 billion cubic meters - the halt of Russian pipeline gas transit via Ukraine and increased storage needs in Europe are expected to keep the market fundamentals tight.
The IEA warns that ongoing geopolitical tensions may add further volatility to gas prices, posing a downside risk to global demand.
Regionally, the Asia Pacific is set for its weakest gas demand growth since 2022, with a year-on-year increase of less than 1%. In North America, demand is projected to rise by just over 1% following a colder-than-average first quarter. Central and South America are also expected to see marginal growth, supported mainly by Argentina and Brazil.
Europe’s demand is forecast to grow by 3%, while Africa and the Middle East could see a combined increase of 2%. Eurasian demand is likely to remain flat in 2025.
Looking ahead to 2026, global gas consumption is projected to reach a new all-time high, with demand growth accelerating to around 2%. LNG supply is set to grow by 7% (40 bcm) driven largely by new production in Canada, Qatar, and the United States.
In 2026, the Asia Pacific is expected to lead global demand growth with an increase of over 4%, accounting for nearly half of the global rise. Demand in North America is forecast to grow by less than 1%, driven by coal-to-gas switching in the power sector.
In contrast, gas use in Central and South America is expected to decline slightly due to stronger renewable energy generation. Europe is also projected to reduce gas consumption by 2% as it continues its transition to renewables.
Eurasian demand could grow by 2% assuming normal weather patterns, while Africa and the Middle East are forecast to see a 3.5% increase, supported by rising use in industry and power generation.
The IEA notes that these forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty due to shifting geopolitical dynamics and broader macroeconomic trends.
