BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 11. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a significant drawdown in U.S. jet fuel stocks through 2025, reversing the stock-building trend of the past two years, Trend reports.
This shift comes after jet fuel inventories reached a six-year high in August 2024, driven by below-pre-pandemic consumption levels and increased production on the U.S. West Coast.
Jet fuel stocks, bolstered by rising refinery yields earlier this year, are now expected to decline due to growing demand and reduced refinery production. Upcoming refinery closures and a shift in focus toward producing distillate fuel oil, which is anticipated to see stronger consumption growth than jet fuel, will contribute to this decline.
According to the EIA, jet fuel stocks are forecast to decrease by over 5 million barrels, or approximately 12%, from August 2024 to August 2025. If realized, this drawdown will be one of the largest over a one-year period in the last decade. By the end of 2025, jet fuel inventories are expected to fall below 40 million barrels, marking their lowest level since November 2023.
These stock reductions are likely to affect market dynamics, with jet fuel crack spreads—the price differential between petroleum products and crude oil—projected to rise. The EIA estimates crack spreads will average 51 cents per gallon in 2025, up from 46 cents per gallon in 2024.