By Jean-Marc Rickli, the President of the Geneva University of Strategic Studies Group Berrow Scholar, especially for Trend
Question of deploying U.S. missile defense system in Europe will be broadened to the future of anti-missile defense full stop. This project will be greatly scaled down for the following reasons. The Obama administration has shifted the priorities of US foreign policy. President Obama has made it clear that Afghanistan and Pakistan are now on top of the priority list. Secondly, the economic crisis forces the USA to prioritize their defense procurement. Estimates from the Government Accountability Office mentions that national missile defense could have overrun costs of$ 2 to $3 billions. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is likely to announce a reduction of spending on national missile defense of $1 to $2 billions. Members of the Obama administration have made it clear that they would prefer to invest in systems that work than those that are still experimental. Also, the national missile defense does not directly address the needs of the new US strategy which is more centered on developing shorter-range missile defense system for operational purposes than protection against a hypothetical and elusive intercontinental missile threat.
The priority is now to protect US soldiers on the ground such as by investing in network sensors which enhance battlefield intelligence. More importantly with the changes of priorities in US foreign policy, anti-missile defense has become more of a burden than an asset.
The Obama administration is trying to resume a dialogue with Iran and anti-missile defense plays against it. More importantly, it directly antagonizes Russian interests. Yet, the US administration is now trying to normalize its relationships with Russia.
Through their invasion of Georgia and their pressure on Kyrgyzstan to force Western forces to leave Manas airbase, the Russians have demonstrated that they now have the means to strongly impede the American efforts. The Americans are now trying to persuade the Russians to curb their support to Iran whom they have supplied with anti aircraft systems as well as nuclear technology.
The Bush conception of national missile defense is probably over. The new US administration has shifted the strategy from unilateralism to getting support from important players. Russia is definitely one of these and national defense - not being a major tool of US strategy - has become more of a bargaining chip than a strategic reality.
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