Azerbaijan, Baku, March 12 /Trend, T.Konyayeva /
Foreign military interference in Libya would be quite easy, from a logistical and technical standpoint, but the interest of any state in introducing military force is the question because of concerns about the possible consequences, says professor of anthropology at McGill University Philip Carl Salzman.
"Foreign military interference in Libya would be quite easy, from a logistical and technical standpoint. Libya does not have a strong military, or a difficult environment, Salzman, a researcher of the Fund for Democracy, wrote in an e-mail to Trend. - the critical question is whether any foreign power has the will to intervene, or sees it in their interests."
In early March, U.S. President Barack Obama confirmed that the U.S. does not exclude the possibility of military intervention in Libya in order to stabilize the country and stressed the need to end violence against civilians.
Later, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that the Alliance is closely monitoring the events in Libya and is ready to join the settlement of the situation in Libya, but this requires "a clear legal framework" and "strong regional support".
Protest actions in the Libyan provinces demanding resignation of Gaddafi, who has been ruling the country for more than 40 years, and all senior officials have been continuing since Feb. 15. The country's authorities suppressed the demonstration. According to international organizations, clashes with security forces and foreign mercenaries killed about 6,000 people.
Gaddafi said he was not going to leave power, while the opposition in Libya also does not intend to retreat from its demands. Currently, most of western provinces remain under Gaddafi's authority, but the eastern territories have shifted to the authority of the opposition.
Salzman said the military interference is easy as the European and American assets are geographically close, so too with Arab military assets.
"There could easily be an air blockade keeping Libyan planes out of the sky, he said. There could easily be transfers of armaments, right on the Mediterranean coast, or across the border from Egypt, and by air. Even foreign ground forces could probably intervene without great difficulty."
Salzman believes that there is fear that any foreign military intervention will be accused of imperialism.
"In addition, there is fear that any intervention will be unending, for what comes next, even if Gaddafi leaves, is uncertain to all, he said. For example, would those we help with arms today turn them against us in the future? And, if intervention in Libya is called for, why not interventions in Egypt, in Yemen, in Iran, etc. etc.? No one has good answers to these objections."
Salzman believes that in some ways Libya is like Somalia, while in other ways not.
"It is alike in not having a history of a strong state, in the population being divided among tribes, each of which prefers power and independence (as all tribes do), and in having traditional geographical divisions, in the Libyan case between the eastern region, Cyrenaica, and the western, Tripolitania," he said.
Existing in Somalia, the transitional federal government is recognized by the international community as a legitimate Somali government, but now it really controls only regions of the city of Mogadishu. South and southwest of Somalia is under the control of the Mujahidin Al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam movements. "North of Somalia is controlled by unrecognized Somaliland Republic, which proclaimed its independence.
It is unalike in that it has substantial oil recourses that require order for people to benefit from; this is a strong motivation for order, said Salzman.
This week, media reported that Libya has reduced oil production to 500,000 barrels per day, thus confirming the estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Oil production in Libya since the riots has fallen by 1.4 million barrels per day - up to 200-300,000 barrels per day.
Oil revenues make up the basis of Libya's budget. Prior to the speeches of the opposition, Libya was producing about 1.7 million barrels of oil per day.
Speaking about other differences between the two countries, Salzman said that it is unalike
in that Libyans are more educated and technologically sophisticated than the Somali, and Libya is on the Mediterranian, with Europe near by.
"So, while there may be internal strife for some time, and a struggle to establish political order, I do think it would eventuate in the end, and that Libya would not end up a failed state like Somalia," he said.
