PremiumSituation in Iran has nothing common with events in Egypt

Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 15 /Trend, T.Konyayeva/

Growing tensions in Iran have nothing common with the revolution in Egypt, in addition, it is not worthy expect in the Islamic Republic the scenario of events and their outcome, such as in Egypt, said the president of the Institute for Middle East Studies Yevgeny Satanovsky.

"We can not and should not expect the slightest parallels with the events in Egypt and the same outcome in Iran, Satanovsky told Trend by telephone from Moscow. - The resistance of the opposition against the current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his group is continuing in Iran."

A rally in support of the peoples of Egypt and Tunisia was launched in Tehran on Monday at 11:30 GMT. Rallies also spread to cities Kirmanshah, Isfahan and Shiraz. The Iranian opposition's official website Kaleme.com reported that more than thousands demonstrators went on the streets in the cities of Shiraz and Isfahan. The police tried to disperse the protesters in Azadi and Ingilab squares in Tehran, using tear gas.

The clashes of the protesters killed one person, several others were injured, the state of one of the wounded is hard. Nine policemen were also wounded, said the deputy commander of Iranian police Ahmadraza Radan.

Large-scale anti-governmental protests took place in Egypt. Thousands of people in different cities across the country took to the streets, demanding President Hosni Mubarak's resignation and the dissolution of parliament. The unrests in the country have killed at least 300 people and have injured over 4,000. One million people marched at the Tahrir Square in Cairo and demanded the resignation of President Mubarak. As a result, on Feb. 11, Mubarak announced his resignation, and transferred the country's leadership to the Supreme Military Council.

According to Satanovsky, current events in Iran are not different from what happened in 2009 and 2010, but only have one difference - the opposition's actions were much bigger than now.
"All the speeches are harshly suppressed and will be suppressed by the current authorities," he said.

In 2009, the powerful opposition unrest broke out in Tehran after the announcement of the results of the presidential election held on June 12. The election was won by the current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. One of the losing candidates - reformer Mir Hussein Mousavi - accused authorities of rigging the voting results and called upon people to hold protests.
According to official figures, the clashes killed 20 people, but unofficial - 150. About 1,032 demonstrators were arrested, most of whom were subsequently released.
The Russian expert believes that in Iran a struggle is going for power within the ruling establishment and the struggling side is the old political elite, and Ahmadinejad, who at the head of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) replaced it, cracked down on them, the ayatollahs and their children.

"The old establishment has no chances to return to the power, said Satanovsky. - Liberals and pragmatists sidelined from power for decades. Today, extreme right, extreme conservative wing of ultra-conservatives of Ahmadinejad gradually take control on management of the economy, territorial associations, provinces, the city mayor's offices. "

IRGC is an Iranian elite unit, created in 1979 from the paramilitary detachments of Islamic Revolutionary Committees, the supporters of Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini. Many members from the Corps are represented in the government, and their number increases. IRGC is the real power in society, which is represented not only in administration, but also in financial and commercial sectors. Guard Corps has extensive economic interests in the defense materials, construction, oil and nuclear industry.

The IRGC also include Basij paramilitary forces as an equal part of its command structure, for which it provides substantial funding and strengthens its presence in Iranian domestic politics.

According to Satanovsky, the conservative elite less influence on the situation, and even Ayatollah Khamenei is somewhat limited, even though he was using Ahmadinejad to deal with its enemies - with President Khatami, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mir Hussein Moussavi, who was his personal enemy during the time of Ayatollah Khomeini.

"We should not expect changes in Iran in the near future or in the future, because the regime in this country is extremely strong, and if someone replaces Ahmadinejad, he will be a person much more stringent than the current government, much more radical and much more aggressive," he said.