BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 3. TotalEnergies has issued a cautious outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024, anticipating ongoing volatility in oil prices against a backdrop of modest global macroeconomic growth and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, Trend reports.
As of late October, the European Refining Marker (ERM) has risen to approximately $25 per ton, a significant increase compared to the average of $15 per ton recorded during the third quarter.
European gas prices are also projected to remain stable, with expectations ranging between $12 and $13 per million British thermal units (Mbtu) as the winter season approaches. This sustained pricing is largely driven by anticipated increases in gas consumption during the colder months. Reflecting recent trends in oil and gas pricing, TotalEnergies estimates its average LNG selling price will hover around $10 per Mbtu in the upcoming quarter, taking into account the typical lag in price formulas.
On the production front, TotalEnergies expects hydrocarbon output to fall between 2.4 and 2.45 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d) in the fourth quarter. This projection benefits from the alleviation of security-related disruptions in Libya and the commencement of the Mero-3 project in Brazil. However, it is important to note that these gains will be offset by several planned shutdowns during the quarter.
The company also forecasts a robust refining utilization rate, anticipated to remain above 85%, despite a scheduled turnaround at its Leuna refinery in October.
TotalEnergies reaffirms its commitment to substantial investment, confirming a net investment guidance of $17 to $18 billion for the year 2024. As the company navigates these challenging market conditions, it remains focused on optimizing production and refining operations to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the energy sector.