BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 28. The prospects of Russian supply disruptions under the Reference case of Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES) are downgraded again to 1.25 mb/d from 1.5 mb/d projected last month, with Russian crude production expected to fall to 9.8 mb/d in 2023 from 10.6 mb/d in 2022, Trend reports via OIES.
“As of September 2022, over 1.1 mb/d of Russia’s crude oil exports to Europe and the rest-G7 were disrupted, 88 percent or 980,000 b/d of which were redirected to other parts of the world, mainly in Asia. In the period March/September 2022, crude exports continued to average higher by 170,000 b/d compared to pre-war January/February levels,” reads the OIES report.
The Institute analysts note that on the products export-side, the disruption held higher in September at 1.2 mb/d with only 41 percent or 510,000 b/d rerouted, albeit the percentage of redirected products is improved from 22 percent in the first four months of the war.
“Russian product exports between March/September averaged 630,000 b/d lower than pre-war levels. Taken together, the net disruption in total Russian oil exports in March/September 2022 averaged 460,000 b/d and we now expect the disruption of another 805,000 b/d throughout the forecast horizon, as EU sanctions come into full effect.”
---
Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn