BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec. 20
By Fakhri Vakilov - Trend:
Uzbekistan’s Central Bank has announced several directions for economic development in 2020-2022, Trend reports with reference to the Central Bank.
According to the revealed plans, a phased continuation of the ongoing reforms and the maintenance of the current economic growth rates in Uzbekistan are expected. As previously reported, GDP growth by the end of 2019 will amount to 5.6 percent, for 2020 the Central Bank predicts 5.2–5.5 percent, and for 2020–2022, acceleration of economic growth to 5.5–5.8 percent.
For 2020-2022, an increase in foreign trade is projected, given the slowdown in growth in imports.
Export promotion measures are also expected to contribute to an increase in exports of goods and services at 10 percent per year (excluding gold). Furthermore, low volatility of prices for national products on world markets is assumed.
The expected deficit of the general fiscal balance in 2020 will be 2.7 percent of GDP, with a further decrease to 1.5 percent by 2023.
By the end of 2020, the Central Bank predicts inflation in the range of 12–13.5 percent. It is also planned to gradually reduce the gap between the actual and target inflation rates with reaching values within single digits in 2021.
A moderately tight monetary policy and effective structural reform measures will continue, the Central Bank said in a statement.
In 2020, macroprudential measures are expected to reduce lending growth rates (up to 25 percent), government spending growth (up to 11 percent).
With regard to the reduction of VAT rates, the Central Bank notes that the effect of this reduction (from 20 percent to 15 percent) will help level out one-time shocks on prices. Moreover, an increase in the excise tax on alcohol and tobacco products and an increase in import customs duties, including on socially important goods such as sugar (by 20 percent), flour (by 10 percent) and vegetable oil (by 5 percent), in a certain degrees will affect inflation.
According to forecasts of the Central Bank, next year the influence of internal fundamental risks on the exchange rate is not expected. Moreover, liberalization of regulated prices will continue until 2022, the report said. It is expected that in the future this will have a positive effect on the formation of a general consumer price index.
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