BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 7. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast for U.S. coal production in 2025, citing increased demand from the electric power sector and recent drawdowns in stockpiles, Trend reports.
According to the EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. is now expected to produce 506 million short tons (MMst) of coal this year - a noticeable upward revision from last month’s estimate. The change comes as coal consumption surged 18% in January and February compared to the same period in 2024, driven by stronger dispatch of coal-fired power plants.
Despite the rise in consumption early in the year, production remained flat, prompting power plants to dip into their coal reserves. Stockpiles at U.S. power plants fell from 128 MMst in December 2024 to 107 MMst by February, before slightly recovering to 117 MMst in March.
The EIA attributes the higher coal burn in part to natural gas prices, which, although declining in recent months, are expected to stay above 2024 levels through 2026. That price trend is likely to sustain demand for coal in the power sector for the remainder of the year.
With coal consumption projected to increase by 4% in 2025, the EIA anticipates coal production will grow 9% in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, as output begins to catch up with demand.
Looking further ahead, however, the outlook shifts. The EIA expects coal consumption to drop by 8% in 2026 due to a wave of coal-fired power plant retirements. As a result, coal production is projected to decline to 475 MMst, down 6% from 2025 levels.
Coal stockpiles are also forecast to continue their gradual decline, falling from 116 MMst at the end of 2025 to 112 MMst by the end of 2026.
