BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 11. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest outlook, forecasting that U.S. natural gas prices will remain relatively stable throughout the shoulder season of September and October, before seeing a gradual rise in 2025, Trend reports.
According to the report, the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas price averaged $1.98 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in August, representing a 4-percent drop from July.
The EIA anticipates little change in prices for September, as the shoulder season—marked by lower overall consumption—sets in before heating demand begins to increase across the United States. In this period, natural gas usage traditionally dips due to reduced demand from both residential and industrial sectors, with a particular decline in consumption from the electric power sector.
"We expect U.S. natural gas consumption to decrease by 8 percent to 79 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) between August and September," the EIA stated, attributing the decline to the seasonal drop in electricity demand as temperatures cool and the need for air conditioning diminishes.
The report also highlights that natural gas production levels are expected to remain steady during this period, further contributing to price stability. As a result, the EIA projects that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will hover around $2.00/MMBtu through September and October and remain below $3.00/MMBtu through the end of 2024.
Looking ahead, the EIA predicts that natural gas prices will begin to rise again in 2025, as colder weather increases demand for space heating and as potential shifts in production dynamics influence the market. However, until then, the market is expected to maintain relatively low and stable pricing, offering a respite for consumers but posing challenges for producers facing tighter profit margins.