BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 19. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) has revised its global oil demand growth forecast downward by 100,000 barrels per day (kb/d), lowering the expected growth to 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) for both 2024 and 2025, Trend reports.
This adjustment reflects weaker-than-anticipated data from China, where Q2 oil demand contracted by 110 kb/d year-on-year, compared to the previously forecasted growth of 180 kb/d.
China’s demand growth outlook for 2024 has been downgraded by 210 kb/d to 350 kb/d due to softer growth expectations for the second half of 2024, which are now projected to average 400 kb/d, down from the previously expected 630 kb/d.
Elsewhere, demand in OECD countries remains resilient, with the US surpassing expectations. In the first half of 2024, US oil demand grew by 170 kb/d, compared to the earlier forecast of 100 kb/d. Additionally, India and non-OECD countries, particularly in the Middle East, Latin America, and other parts of Asia, continue to bolster the global demand outlook, offsetting some of the downturn in Chinese demand by 120 kb/d.
Despite the overall robustness of global oil demand growth at 1.3 mb/d for both 2024 and 2025, OIES cautions that global growth risks, particularly for 2025, remain significant. Among oil products, gasoil/diesel demand shows the most weakness, with a projected contraction of 220 kb/d year-on-year in 2024, 210 kb/d lower than previously expected. However, growth in petrochemicals is expected to offset some of these losses, adding 130 kb/d to global demand.
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