TASHKENT, Uzbekistan, December 18. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has revised its inflation forecasts, lowering them to approximately 7.3% by the end of 2025 and 6.5% by the end of 2026, Trend reports.
According to the latest data, the national currency's appreciation, which occurred more rapidly than expected, has had a pronounced disinflationary effect. This was primarily due to a reduction in import inflation and a lowering of inflation expectations, prompting the Central Bank to revise its forecast downward.
The disinflationary trend continued into November, with annual inflation easing to 7.5%. This deceleration was mainly driven by a moderation in core inflation, bolstered by restrictive monetary conditions and the strengthening exchange rate. Core inflation dropped to 6.3% year-on-year in November, while a decline in import prices helped stabilize non-food inflation.
Despite the overall slowdown, the regulator highlighted that inflation in the services sector, although easing, still remains higher than the general inflation rate. This discrepancy is largely attributed to persistent demand-side pressures.
Inflation expectations among both households and businesses continued to decline in November.
In its previous policy meeting, the regulator had forecasted a decline in headline inflation to 7% by the end of 2026.