Azerbaijan, Baku, Apr. 13 / Trend A.Badalova /
The global economy continues to recover, but there is no consensus about its future. Optimists believe the worst times are behind and the global economy will improve soon. Pessimists think that the risks will still remain, and the global economy will soon enter a new period of decline.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn believes the global economy is still in danger. The rapid recovery - now observed mainly at the expense of developing countries - is cause for concern, as it may push governments to prematurely end their anti-crisis measures, he said.
The IMF forecasts global economic growth at four percent in 2010 compared to the 3.9 percent projected earlier. In 2011, the figure will hit 4.5 percent. According to the IMF forecasts, growth in Asia will reach 8.5 percent. In 2010, U.S. economic growth is projected to reach three percent and next year is expected to slow to 2.4 percent. The IMF expects the smallest growth in the euro zone at 0.8 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2011.
World Economic Forum Founder and Executive Chairman Klaus Schwab said the global crisis is nearing completion and the situation will continue to improve rapidly.
The Economic Research Capital Economics said the global economy will grow by four percent in 2010. In 2011, British analysts expect another slowdown in world GDP as a result of weakening incentives for economic recovery. Analysts forecast the greatest growth for the year in China at 10 percent. The economy of the euro zone will grow by one percent in 2010 and 0.5 percent in 2011.
Based on World Bank forecasts, global GDP will grow by 2.7 percent in 2010 and 3.2 percent in 2011.
OPEC forecasts global economic growth at 3.4 percent. OPEC predicted GDP growth this year at 2.4 percent in the United States, 1.3 percent in Japan, 0.6 percent in the euro zone and 9.3 in China.
Based on the forecasts of the U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley, global GDP in 2010 will grow by 4.4 percent compared to the four percent forecast by the bank earlier.
Forecasts for global economic growth, 2010-2011 (in%):
|
Companies |
2010 |
2011 |
|
IMF |
4 (W) 3 (U) 0.8 (Е) |
4.5 (W) 2.4 (U) 1.5 (Е) |
|
Capital Economics |
4 (W) 1 (Е) |
0.5 (Е) |
|
WB |
2.7 (W) |
3.2 (W) |
|
OPEC |
3.4 (W) 2.4 (U) 0.6 (Е) |
- |
|
Morgan Stanley |
4,4 (W) |
- |
W - The world economy
U - U.S. economy
E - eurozone economy