BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 10. Oil prices are forecasted to rise from an average of $82/b in June to $89/b for the remainder of 2024, with a further increase to $91/b expected in 1Q2025, Trend reports.
In its latest outlook, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates a gradual return to moderate inventory builds in 2025 following the conclusion of voluntary supply cuts by OPEC+ in 4Q2024 and the projected increase in supply from non-OPEC+ countries offsetting global oil demand growth.
Starting from 3Q2025, the EIA estimates that global oil inventories will rise by an average of 0.3 mb/d, increasing to 0.4 mb/d in the fourth quarter. The agency predicts that Brent crude oil prices will average $88/b in 2025 as expanding inventories exert downward pressure on oil prices in the latter half of the year.
Meanwhile, in June, the Brent crude oil spot price held steady at an average of $82/b, unchanged from May. Prices briefly dipped to $75/b on June 4 following the June 2 OPEC+ meeting, during which the group announced plans to gradually unwind 2.2 million b/d of voluntary production cuts starting in 4Q24.
Market reactions to this decision reflected concerns about potential increases in global oil inventories. However, prices have since rebounded to $88/b as of July 3, driven by reassessments from market participants regarding current inventory levels and OPEC+'s indication that production adjustments remain contingent on market conditions.