BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan, July 16. The Kyrgyz economy is expected to grow at a steady pace from 2026 through 2027, albeit slower than the post-pandemic upturn seen in early 2025.
Data obtained by Trend from Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) shows that the real GDP is forecast to grow by 5.6 percent in 2026 and by 5.4 percent in 2027. These figures reflect a normalization of the rapid growth seen in 2025, which was driven by exceptional performance in the construction sector and manufacturing, including the housing program launched by the State Mortgage Company.
Although inflation is projected to decline slightly, it is expected to remain near the upper boundary of the National Bank's target corridor. Consumer prices are projected to rise by 6.6 percent in 2026 and 6.1 percent in 2027, with food inflation expected to ease, but pressure on services and non-food prices is expected to remain.
In fiscal terms, the republican budget is forecast to remain in surplus in 2026 at 0.3 percent of GDP. However, in 2027, the budget may shift into a small deficit of 0.5 percent of GDP due to the absence of large non-tax revenues like the 2025 National Bank profit transfer, as well as higher interest payments on Eurobonds and increased transfers to local budgets. Budget revenues are projected to decline from 27 percent of GDP to 23–24 percent, while expenditures are expected to rise slightly to around 24 percent of GDP.
The country’s external position is forecast to improve as the current account deficit narrows to 19 percent of GDP by the end of 2027, supported by stable exports, remittances, and reduced machinery imports. International reserves are expected to remain stable, averaging 4.4 months of import coverage, supported by continued gold purchases and a favorable global price environment.
The forecasts suggest a transition toward more balanced and sustainable growth in Kyrgyzstan, underpinned by structural reforms and improved fiscal planning.
