BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 15. Global oil supply from non-OPEC+ producers rose by 450,000 barrels per day (b/d) in June, reaching 54.6 million b/d, according to the latest outlook by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
The increase was driven by the return of Canadian oil sands upgraders following maintenance, as well as seasonal gains in biofuels. These gains were partly offset by pipeline disruptions in Colombia and a decline in U.S. natural gas liquids (NGLs) output.
The IEA projects that non-OPEC+ production will rise by 1.4 million b/d in 2025 to average 54.5 million b/d. However, growth is expected to slow to 940,000 b/d next year as U.S. light tight oil (LTO) enters a period of contraction. Despite the deceleration, the United States will remain the single largest contributor to non-OPEC+ growth.
Together with Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina, the U.S. is expected to account for around 75% of non-OPEC+ supply gains in 2025.
In June, U.S. oil production declined by 100,000 b/d from May to 20.8 million b/d. While crude output increased by 60,000 b/d—driven by gains in offshore and Alaskan production—NGLs dropped by 150,000 b/d due to weaker ethane supply.
The IEA noted that in April, total U.S. oil supply reached a record high of 20.9 million b/d, with crude output at 13.5 million b/d and NGLs at 7.4 million b/d. Several U.S. shale regions, including Ohio’s Utica and Wyoming’s Powder River Basin, also recorded near-peak production.
For 2025, total U.S. production is expected to increase by 510,000 b/d, with an additional 190,000 b/d projected for 2026. While NGL growth is set to slow—from 290,000 b/d this year to 170,000 b/d in 2026—crude oil output is forecast to remain flat after a gain of 200,000 b/d in 2025.
