BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 4. After a weak 2023, global trade volume growth is projected to recover, with an anticipated growth rate of 3.5% in 2024, followed by 3.6% in 2025, Trend reports via the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Growth is expected to moderate slightly to 3.5% in 2026. Key drivers include the expanding trade between emerging-market economies and the rebound in investment and consumption in both advanced and emerging markets. This growth is also expected to be more balanced, with Europe experiencing an uptick in trade.
The OECD reports that, overall, global trade will grow at a slightly stronger pace than the pre-pandemic decade average. However, the intensity of trade growth varies by region, with advanced economies, particularly in Europe, seeing weaker trade intensity. On the other hand, trade intensity is expected to rise significantly in China and other emerging-market economies, leading to an increase in China's share of global trade in the coming years.
Current account balances are expected to remain stable in 2025-2026, with the United States continuing to run a significant deficit, despite increased trade policy restrictions. Export growth in the U.S. is expected to remain subdued, while import demand stabilizes. China's current account surplus is expected to rise further after a sharp increase in the third quarter of 2024.
Employment growth in OECD countries is projected to remain resilient but soften over the next two years, with a decrease in the pace of job gains from 1.2% in 2023-24 to 0.8% in 2025-2026. A similar slowdown in employment growth is expected in some emerging-market economies, including Brazil. Labour force growth in the OECD is also expected to ease, particularly as migration inflows moderate, leading to a stabilization of the unemployment rate around current low levels.
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